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Agriculture |
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Emerging
Crisis in Punjab Agriculture Severity and Options for Future
By Ramesh Chand I
Growth Rates in Output and Income II Cropwise
Performance and Substitution Possibilities III
Diversification through Dairying IV
Agricultural Diversification and Employment V Agricultural
Diversification and Natural Resources VI Future
Strategy and Policy Suggestions Statistical
Data | Table1 | Table2 | Table3 | Table4 | Table5 | Table6 | Table7 | Table8 | Table9 |
THE impressive growth rates
achieved in agricultural production in Punjab are well known and
have been widely acclaimed as a success of the agricultural strategy
centred on the green revolution technology. There is a widespread
belief that the ‘Punjab pattern of agricultural development’ and
green revolution technology are the best route for agricultural
development in other parts of the country. The general impression
about Punjab agriculture is that it is highly productive, continues
to have vast potential for growth, and provides good farm income to
producers. This impression might have been true during the early
days of green revolution; recent reports reveal disturbing trends
about Punjab agriculture and the future of green revolution in the
state. Productivity of rice and wheat, the major crops of the state
which occupy about 70 per cent of its gross cropped area, is
reported to have approached a plateau and farm incomes are reported
to be stagnant and insufficient for a decent living. There is a
growing realisation about the degradation of land, water and
environment due to the current pattern of agricultural production
and its sustainability is under question. Though some concern has
been expressed by researchers about disquiet aspect of Punjab
agriculture during the past five-six years, these were not paid
serious attention by the state till recently. However, the rising
discontent among the farm community due to their failure to get
aspired farm income, and problems like declining water-table in some
part, waterlogging in other parts, soil degradation and environment
pollution have reached such proportion as to force the state
government to make serious efforts to address these problems. As a step in this direction,
Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, at the instance of the
state government, organised a two-day brain storming discussion on
October 23-24, 1998, to discuss the conditions of farmers and
farming in Punjab and to chalk out future strategy for agriculture.
The meeting was attended by some economists from the state and
outside, agricultural experts of Punjab Agricultural University and
the state government officials. The agenda paper discussed during
the meeting made startling revelations about the conditions of
farmers and sustainability of current agricultural strategy.1
Some of the assertions made in the paper which point to the
underneath crisis in Punjab agriculture are: (1) Economic
condition of vast majority of farmers has deteriorated and cannot be
improved with the existing cropping system and technology which has
already been exploited to 75 per cent potential. (2) Family income of about
47 per cent of the farmers from crop plus dairy is lower than the
income at lowest pay scale for unskilled worker in the state. The
paper further says that about 20 per cent of farming population is
below the poverty line income. (3) The water-table in the
central Punjab is going down at the rate of 0.23 cm per annum. If
this decline continues for the next 15 years, about 2 lakh
centrifugal pumps will need to be replaced by submersible pumps
which at current prices will cost Rs. 2000 crore or about Rs
5,000/hectare of net sown area. (4) In some part water-table
has risen by four-five metres during 1984 to 1994 and led to problem
of salinity and waterlogging. (5) Widespread deficiency of
micro-nutrient has appeared in the soil and there is increase in
weed infestation, pest and disease outbreak. (6) Burning of combine
harvested rice straw is resulting in serious environment pollution. Though there was some
disagreement among the participants about estimates of farm income,
everyone felt the necessity for urgent action and suitable strategy
to put Punjab agriculture on a new growth path which is sustainable
from natural resource point of view and which provides reasonable
income to sustain interest in farming. Whenever there is a problem
related to agricultural production, income or employment,
agricultural diversification is most often suggested as the
alternative. Accordingly, the agenda paper also suggested
diversification through vegetables, fruits, dairying, etc as future
strategy to address the problems confronting Punjab agriculture,
without analysing various dimensions of suggested alternatives. The
present paper, based on empirical evidence, examines the scope of
agricultural diversification to address the problems confronting
Punjab agriculture. It also discusses prospects of various
diversification alternatives and analyses their implications on
employment, income, natural resources and ecology. An attempt has
also been made to propose future strategy for agricultural and
economic development of the state in the post-green revolution
period. The paper is organised into six
sections. The first section discusses the growth rate in
agricultural output and per capita income in the recent period
compared to the earlier period. Section II compares performance of
various crops and analyses prospects of diversification in the crop
pattern. Possibility of diversification through dairying are
examined in Section III. Causes of unemployment in the state
and scope of employment generation through diversification and other
strategies are explored in Section IV. Impact of wheat and paddy
cultivation on natural resources like water, land and environment
and remedies to check their degradation are discussed in Section V.
The last section contains policy suggestions and discusses strategy
to meet the current challenges. The study is based on secondary
data at state level and micro investigations at grassroots level
based on field survey of 300 farm households in Ludhiana district
which is agriculturally most advance district of the state.
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