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Agriculture |
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Emerging
Crisis in Punjab Agriculture
III.
Diversification through Dairying
As green fodder is the main input
for commercial dairy, its expansion, through the increase in area
under green fodder, results in diversification of crop pattern.
Though per capita production of milk in Punjab is well above the
level required for a healthy diet, the availability in most other
states and for the country as a whole is quite low. There is a gap
of about 39 per cent between per capita milk production and the
minimum level (250 grams) of milk recommended by the Indian Council
of Medical Research. Similarly, despite higher dependence of Indian
population on vegetarian diet, per capita milk availability between
India and the rest of the world has a gap of 53 per cent. These
figures underline the need and scope for substantial increase in
milk production in the country. In addition to the need to fill
existing gap, future demand for milk would also increase due to
population growth and rise in per capita income, as the income
elasticity of demand for milk is positive and close to one (1.15 for
rural and 0.99 for urban population) [Radhakrishna and Ravi 1992]. Punjab state enjoys the
advantages like sufficient availability of green fodder and an
efficient system of rural transport and road network to promote
commercial dairy. The scope for large scale expansion of dairying is
also evident from the fact that to bridge 1 per cent gap between
availability and minimum milk requirement in the country about 4 per
cent increase in milk output in Punjab would be needed, and India
has about 40 per cent gap between the availability and minimum
requirement of milk. Therefore, both the demand as well as supply
side factors seem quite favourable for expanding dairy industry in
Punjab. Expansion in dairy activity, besides resulting in diversification of crop pattern due to shift in area in favour of fodder crops, would be beneficial in improving soil health through increased availability of organic manure. An exercise was done, using the sample information, to study what would be the impact of expansion of dairying activity on the crop pattern (Table 4). Green fodder requirement of an average dairy unit2 consisting of 3.21 in-milk, 3.51 dry and 1.01 heifers was met from an area of 1.48 acres in kharif and 0.97 acres in rabi season. Assuming no change in productivity, breed mix and age composition of dairy animals, raising milk production by say ‘X’ per cent would entail same ‘X’ per cent increase in the number of dairy animals (dry and in-milk animals and heifers). This way, 10 per cent increase in milk production would result in expansion of area under fodder from present level of 21.23 per cent to 23 per cent in kharif and from 13.94 per cent to 15.16 per cent in rabi season. Since area under the other crops is already too small, the shift in favour of fodder crops would come from wheat and paddy crops. Our estimates reveal that meeting 1 per cent of the milk deficit in the country from Punjab would reduce share of paddy and wheat in net cultivated area by 1.09 and 0.60 per cent, respectively. |
